CONTEST: Give Me The Fifth in the Sixth!

[Horse’s Rear]

A simple, fun $2 Win contest. Any track, handicap the sixth race and put $2 Win on your FIFTH CHOICE. Not your first choice, your fifth. Let's try and get some prices.

[Horse’s Rear]

I will play Tampa Bay

6) #3 Visual Artist 8/1ML

[Horse’s Rear]

Ran like a fifth choice. I think he finished sixth.

[De Troll]

 ..... Santa Anita's 6th race .. (happens to be the San Felipe .. post time 5:02)

 ... now only 4 runners .. I'll take the highest ML odds colt #4 Mc Vay .. (15 to 1

  ......... ran third of the 4.. The "baffler's colts ran first and second .. there was an inquiry .. "no changes" .. lol

[De Troll]

..... been a minute since I've placed a wager .. so with 0 minutes to post plaid the old 1w3w5w6 super box on the 2nd race at SA .. finished 3-5-6-1 ..  .. dime super box $2.40 paid $6.07 ..

[De Troll]

 ....... well it that worked .. I'll try a super box on the  even numbers 2w4w6w8 in the 32rd .. 

  ....... that wasn't close ..?

[Sweetwilliam]

I'm late to this party.  Maybe next time I can join in.  Been a long time since I played the horses for real or not for real.

[Horse’s Rear]

I will continue—for no good reason—by posting my fifth choice in today's sixth race at Mahoning Valley.* Stay tuned.

*Of course, the difficulty these days—whether playing Mahoning Valley, Santa Anita, or Aqueduct—is finding a sixth race that has five entrants in it.

And, again, as clarification, the goal is to select your personal fifth choice (the one to whom you prefer four alternates), not the horse who will be bet down (or up) to fifth choice. With Computer Assisted Wagering now destroying the game, there is no way to know what prices are until the race is posted official.

[Horse’s Rear]

Okay, this turns out to be more fun than it should be!

I handicap the race, as follows, in terms of win likelihood: 6-3-7-5-2-1-4, with neither of the last two having any realistic chance of winning. That would make the 2 my selection, as fifth choice (and, coincidentally, the longest price I might see winning, making him the best bet to win and return at least $20 for $2. EXCEPT

Scratches. The 5 is out, making the 2 now my fourth choice, and obliging me to pick an entrant between the 1 (Had Right) and the 4 (Silver Matt), neither of whom I think can win without an Act of God and Chicanery.

Today's race is 1m70. Silver Matt attempted that distance in his last start, finishing last, beaten 34 lengths in his first attempt around two turns since last June.  Had Right found a pace so slow two starts back that he found himself in second for a little while, before finishing third of five, beaten 13 lengths. That is the only time since last April that he has not finished dead last, and in which, at some point in the race, he actually passed another horse. On the grounds that Silver Matt "needed that last race," I elevate him to my fifth choice.

4 Silver Matt

[Horse’s Rear]

Let's see if I can call the CAW final odds:
1) 32/1

2) 8/1

3) 8/5

4) 32/1

5) SCR

6) 6/5

7) 7/2

[De Troll]

 ........ in essence .. you are looking for an "ice cold" super High Five in a 6th race somewhere.. Guess you could box the first 4 choices and single the 5th choice .. putting $2 on the nose of 5th choice ..?

 ..... as I haven't followed the horses for a good while .. I struggle to find a first choice that hits the board ..? Good fortune on you play ..    

[Horse’s Rear]

What I am doing w this exercise is looking for a good price winner.

Typically, when I look for a winner, what I find is a reasonable horse at a short price. And these days, most prices are overbet, and most short prices are badly overbet, often during the running.

So the goal here is to reverse the process, and find the price first.

[Horse’s Rear]

A truly bad bunch of horses produced a truly bad result. Final order of finish (after odd pace decisions):
7-1-3-4-2-6.

[Horse’s Rear]

Odds as they entered the gate, and at the finish:
1) 15/1.  9/1
2) 5/1. 4/1
3) 6/5. 8/5
4) 10/1. 10/1
5) SCRATCHED
6) 7/2. 4/1
7) 5/2. 5/2

[De Troll]

What I am doing w this exercise is looking for a good price winner.

Typically, when I look for a winner, what I find is a reasonable horse at a short price. And these days, most prices are overbet, and most short prices are badly overbet, often during the running.

So the goal here is to reverse the process, and find the price first.

 ....... I can't argue with that .. one of the reason I lost interest in wagering .. was it got difficult to find a price horses.. When a horse with longer odds did win .. I would go back over the PP's and couldn't find a reason why the horse out-ran his history ..?